Collecting data on the nation’s nearly 330 million
inhabitants is a fraught exercise in the best of times. But the COVID-19
outbreak played even more havoc this year with the Census Bureau’s plans
to complete its decennial count.
Nevertheless, it had still hoped that an additional
two weeks at the end of October would have enabled it to derive a more accurate
population count through knocking on more doors and allowing more households
the chance to send in their own Census forms at the last minute.
But an October 13 Supreme Court decision meant
that the Bureau had to wrap up its tallying process on Oct. 15, two weeks ahead
of schedule—essentially backing the Trump Administration’s insistence that the
count be completed by the statutory deadline of December 31, 2020, as required
by law and directed by the Secretary of Commerce who oversees the bureau.
That ruling, Ross v. National Urban League et. al.,
came despite concerns by both the American Statistical Association and the Census
Bureau’s own census takers and partners that the quality of the data collected might
be compromised by a perfect storm of a shortened schedule, dropped quality
control procedures, litigation and the politicization of parts of the current census.
Much of the commentary on the decision has revolved
around the impact of the Census population counts in determining political
contests, particularly how an undercount of immigrants and low-income
minorities might affect each state’s apportionment of congressional seats and
Electoral College representation.
That impact, while certainly important, is not what I
will attempt here. In contrast, the effect on business, while it has been less
discussed in the media, is also significant, and consequently deserves more
attention that I’ll try to provide now.
By way of background, the Constitution specifically
calls for a census count in Article 1, Section 2: “Representatives and
direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included
within this Union, according to their respective Numbers…The actual Enumeration
shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the
United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as
they shall by Law direct.”
But the current fracas over the Census has its origins
in the 1990s, when Republicans and Democrats squabbled over the use of statistical
adjustment (more commonly known as “sampling”) to estimate population.
While Democrats saw this method as both scientifically
based and a means of deriving a more accurate count of urban areas, Republicans
were suspicious of what they regarded as a scheme that would shift the balance
away from white suburban and rural areas where they were more dominant. They emphasized
the phrase “actual Enumeration” from the brief constitutional mandate for the census.
(Kenneth Prewitt offers a useful overview of this partisan
dispute in “Politics and Science in Census Taking,” a 2003 report
published by the Russell Sage Foundation and the Population Reference Bureau.)
But politicians running for office aren’t the only
ones vitally concerned by this struggle. Business professionals also have a
vital interest in accurate population counts.
First, population estimates are the mother’s milk of
business research. Companies planning expansions or relocations need to know if
an area is growing or contracting, by how much, or in what ways. For instance,
they may be experiencing an influx of new ethnic nor racial groups, or an age
cohort may be growing. Companies need to know if there will be a demand for
their products and services.
Over time, estimates of population data enable
companies to project trends and ensure that they are staying ahead of the
curve.
Back in March, Rhett Buttle and Katie Vlietstra
Wonnenberg, in an opinion piece for The Hill, cited other, more specific
business uses for the census, including:
* Financial institutions that identify sound lending
opportunities;
* Real estate appraisal companies that determine
current and future housing demands;
* Retailers (such as department stores) that analyze
demographic changes (and guesstimate how many people to hire);
* Nielsen, which calculates TV ratings;
* Entrepreneurs and other small businesses, which seek
current Census information to reduce economic uncertainty that can affect their
plans.
On the other hand, accurate Census data affects how
the agencies that regulate such businesses interact with customers— for
instance, in assessing compliance with the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act(HMDA) and the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and in performing fair
lending examinations.
Moreover, the availability of such data may assist
emerging sectors in pinpointing areas of need for different population niches.
It can assist firms helping disabled Americans, for instance, target rural
areas that have traditionally underserved this group, or help some communities
as they transition from manufacturing or agriculture to employment centered
around tourism, clean energy, and outdoor recreation, according to a July 2019 analysis for the Center for American Progress done by Olugbenga Ajilore and Zoe Willingham.
Especially in the last couple of years, population shifts have become so rapid and far-ranging that businesses are seriously handicapped by arbitrary bureaucratic and judicial decisions that hinder the collection of current and comprehensive data.
Unfortunately, business professionals have become
collateral damage in the Republican-Democratic struggle over representation. They
are as entitled to “the public’s right to know” as other individuals.
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