Friday, November 15, 2024

Quote of the Day (Eric Levitz, With an Election Prediction That Actually Came to Pass)

“[T]he Trump era indicated that its coalition has more room to grow than liberals tend to think. The GOP improved with Hispanics nationwide as well as with Black and Asian American voters. Historically, immigrant communities have grown more conservative in their later generations, and Hispanic and Asian immigrant groups may follow a similar trajectory. At the same time, as the Black church declines, and young African-Americans enter more integrated social networks than their forebears, the Democrats' capacity to unite 90-plus percent of the demographic behind their banner is likely to diminish.

“If the Republicans make minuscule expansions to their base, they will likely control all three branches of the federal government by 2025 while boasting a hammerlock on the Senate for a decade or more.”—American political and economics reporter Eric Levitz, “The Big Rig,” New York Magazine, June 7-20, 2021

With Wednesday’s news that Republicans have maintained their hold on the House of Representatives, the Democratic nightmare envisioned by Levitz has come to pass.

All those 2002 predictions about demographic trends spelling “An Emerging Democratic Majority,” one of those generational “realignments” so beloved by political scientists, have turned out to be electoral fools’ gold—and even that optimistic book’s authors, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira, saw fit to revise their estimate last year with Where Have All the Democrats Gone?

Well, no matter. First things first: how the Democrats plan to block the worst Trump appointments and actions, right now.

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